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Exam 5: B: Strategic Capacity Planning

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Question 21

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A decision tree is:

A) an algebraic representation of alternatives.
B) a behavioural representation of alternatives.
C) a matrix representation of alternatives.
D) a graphical representation of alternatives.
E) a horticultural representation of alternatives.

F) All of the above
G) A) and D)

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Question 22

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The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production.(Due to budgeting constraints,only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script #1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run,but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000.If this movie is successful,then a sequel could also be produced,with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000,but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000.On the other hand,she feels that script #2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000,but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000.If successful,its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000,but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000.Of course,in either case,if the original movie were a "flop",then no sequel would be produced.What is the expected value of selecting script #1?

A) $15,000,000
B) $9,060,000
C) $8,400,000
D) $7,200,000
E) $6,000,000

F) D) and E)
G) A) and D)

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Question 23

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In decision theory,states of nature refer to a set of possible values for a random variable.

Expected monetary value gives the actual payoff one can expect in a given situation involving risk.

The local operations manager for the Canada Revenue Agency must decide whether to hire one,two,or three temporary tax examiners for the upcoming tax season.She estimates that net revenues (in thousands of dollars) will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code just passed by Parliament,as follows: If she feels the chances of low,medium,and high compliance are 20%,30%,and 50%,respectively,what are the expected net revenues for the number of assistants she will decide to hire?

The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants,Inc.needs to decide whether to spend this month's budget for advertising on print media,television,or a mixture of the two.Her goal is to minimize the costs associated with reaching her audience.She estimates that the cost per thousand "hits" (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use,as follows: If she feels that there is a 60% chance that the new cable network will be successful,what is her expected cost (per thousand "hits") for the strategy she will be selecting?

Two professors at a nearby university want to co-author a new textbook in either economics or statistics.They feel that if they write an economics book,they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies.On the other hand,if they write a statistics book,they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies.What is the probability that the statistics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?

A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2. If condition I materializes, A will cost $12,000, B will cost $20,000, and C will cost $16,000. If condition II materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for A, $18,000 for B, and $14,000 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for A, $15,000 for B, and $19,000 for C. (i) Draw a decision tree for this problem. (ii) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen?

The construction manager for Acme Construction,Inc.must decide whether to build single-family homes,apartments,or condominiums.He estimates annual profits (in $000) will vary with the population trend as follows: If he feels the chances of declining,stable,and growing population trends are 40%,50%,and 10%,respectively,what is his expected value of perfect information?

A tabular presentation that shows the outcome for each decision alternative under the various possible states of nature is called:

One local hospital has just enough space and funds presently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab.If administration decides on the cancer lab,there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year,and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing.If the cancer research lab is funded the first year,no additional outside funding will be available the second year.However,if it is not funded the first year,then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year,and 50 percent that it will get nothing again.If,however,the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab,then there's a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year,and a 50 percent chance of getting nothing.If the heart lab is funded the first year,management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000,and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year.If it is not funded the first year,then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000,and a 40 percent chance of getting nothing in the following year.For both the cancer and heart research labs,no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years.What is the expected value for the optimum decision alternative?

Two professors at a nearby university want to co-author a new textbook in either economics or statistics.They feel that if they write an economics book,they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies.On the other hand,if they write a statistics book,they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies.What is the expected value for the optimum decision alternative?

One local hospital has just enough space and funds presently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab.If administration decides on the cancer lab,there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year,and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing.If the cancer research lab is funded the first year,no additional outside funding will be available the second year.However,if it is not funded the first year,then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year,and 50 percent that it will get nothing again.If,however,the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab,then there's a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year,and a 50 percent chance of getting nothing.If the heart lab is funded the first year,management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000,and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year.If it is not funded the first year,then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000,and a 40 percent chance of getting nothing in the following year.For both the cancer and heart research labs,no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years.What is the expected value for the decision alternative to select the heart lab?

Testing how a problem solution reacts to changes in one or more of the model parameters in a decision problem is called:

The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants,Inc.needs to decide whether to spend this month's budget for advertising on print media,television,or a mixture of the two.Her goal is to minimize the costs associated with reaching her audience.She estimates that the cost per thousand "hits" (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use,as follows: If she feels that there is a 60% chance that the new cable network will be successful,what is her expected value (per thousand "hits") of perfect information?

Two professors at a nearby university want to co-author a new textbook in either economics or statistics.They feel that if they write an economics book,they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies.On the other hand,if they write a statistics book,they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies.What is the expected value for the decision alternative to write the economics book?

The owner of Tastee Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small,medium,or large new retail outlet.She estimates that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows: If she feels there is a 30% chance that demand will be high,what are the expected monthly profits for the outlet she will decide to lease?

The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production.(Due to budgeting constraints,only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script #1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run,but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000.If this movie is successful,then a sequel could also be produced,with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000,but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000.On the other hand,she feels that script #2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000,but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000.If successful,its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000,but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000.Of course,in either case,if the original movie were a "flop",then no sequel would be produced.What is the expected value of selecting script #2?

The owner of Tastee Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small,medium,or large new retail outlet.She estimates that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows: If she feels there is a 30% chance that demand will be high,what is her expected payoff?

Expected monetary value gives the long-run average payoff if a large number of identical decisions could be made.